Colonel Sam "You Can Call Me Cassandra" Gardiner

I have argued repeatedly that if and when we attack Iran, it will be without a serious effort at diplomacy, it will be without a deadline, without a CNN “Showdown in Persia” lead-in, and most certainly without a public debate and Congressional approval. It will just simply happen. We will wake up one morning to discover we have bombed (or otherwise attacked) Iran. Retired USAF Colonel Gardiner seems to agree with my analysis and of course, since he is a professional, has much more detail and insight to offer.

Well, Col. Sam Gardiner says that we’re already on the ground in Iran, and that a military strike is pretty much a foregone conclusion. He believes the decision has already been made by Bush et al and what we are witnessing now is simply the half-hearted (and half-assed) going-through-the-motions of diplomacy we have come to expect from the Bushies. Gardiner continues, however, to conclude that the military option is spectacularly bad.

I highly recommend that you read this PDF of a report Gardiner just released entitled “THE END OF THE “SUMMER OF DIPLOMACY”: ASSESSING U.S. MILITARY OPTIONS ON IRAN.”

Truly, reading this document is eerie- like experiencing the run-up to Iraq all over again, combined with reading a future history of events yet to unfold.

For an added teaser, the report contains nuggets not to be found elsewhere, such as the revelation that the Israelis not only have a plan for an attack on Iran, but it involves air strikes, commando raids- “even explosive-carrying dogs that would penetrate the underground facilities.” Uh huh.

Of particular interest, especially for those that wish to play along at home, are Gardiner’s “Seven Truths”:

“In order to understand the position of those within the U.S. government who will make the final decision to execute a military option against Iran, you must first consider the seven key truths that they believe:

• Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction- that is most likely true.
• Iran is ignoring the international community- true.
• Iran supports Hezbollah and terrorism- true.
• Iran is increasingly inserting itself in Iraq and beginning to be involved in Afghanistan- true.
• The people of Iran want a regime change- most likely an exaggeration.
• Sanctions are not going to work- most likely true.
• You cannot negotiate with these people- not proven.”

Gardiner’s ultimate conclusion:

“When I finished the 2004 Iran war game exercise, I summarized what I had learned in the process. After all the effort, I am left with two simple sentences for policy makers. “You have no military solution for the issues of Iran. You have to make diplomacy work.” I have not changed my mind. That conclusion made sense then. It still makes sense today.”

For more of Gardiner’s recent statements on what’s going on in Iran, click here.

For a PDF entitled “Judging the Iranian Threat: 20 Questions We Need To Answer,” brought to my attention by reader and frequent commenter Toussaint, click here.

What’s cool about this PDF is that it addresses the issues Gardiner raises in his “Seven Truths” and then some. Plus, each question is explored from both sides of the issue. Imagine that, a political debate in which BOTH SIDES of the issue are explored. It almost reminds of America. Thanks Toussaint!